Bluetongue virus is having a major impact on sheep farming across the Sussex Downs – and could result in changes to the landscape itself.
Some areas of grassland currently used for grazing could be ploughed up and switched to arable farming.
These are among the conclusions in a new report on the virus, which affects all species of ruminants, due to be considered by the South Downs J
oint Committee at a meeting tomorrow (Friday).
The report, prepared by downs officer Martin Beaton, said bluetongue had had a significant effect on sheep farming, which was already under economic pressure.
The impact was likely to continue into 2008, and would affect the sheep industry's performance.
Large areas of downland north of Chichester have traditionally been used for grazing sheep.
"Poor sheep prices coinciding with improved arable prices, which are likely to be maintained at least over the next few years, are likely to drive the expansion of arable production within the Downs," said Mr Beaton.
"Finance available through the new agri-environment schemes, though potentially better targeted, is unlikely to be adequate to maintain the current area of grassland on the Downs through the existing environmental sensitive area scheme."
There would be a continuing threat from bluetongue virus for the sheep and beef industry as a whole, given the uncertainty over its spread and the unknown regulatory and economic costs.
Individual farmers had the experience of dealing with bluetongue – mortality, reduced fertility, loss of production and economic uncertainty.
Poor returns would mean fewer sheep, increasing the problems of grazing on landscapes dependent on livestock to maintain significant areas of grassland, which contributed to its natural beauty, cultural heritage and the conservation of archaeological and wildlife sites, where grazing was critical to their long term conservation.
Lamb prices should rise next year, but the extent to which markets and hence prices fully recovered to previous levels was unclear.
Mr Beaton said the strength of the arable sector would mean economic pressures also drove a shift towards more arable production.
The increasingly-strong arable sector would increase pressure to plough marginal grassland.
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